As I was visiting customers this week, I was able to get a really good piece of news. For those of you who don’t know, I call on manufacturing companies in a technical sales role. Usually when they’re busy, it’s one of the leading indicators that the market is recovering. Things have certainly picked up since 2009, but there still is speculation about if this is just the double dip playing itself out.
What’s the double dip all about?
In my opinion, there are 3 main components to the theory behind double dip:
- There is a group of people out there that believe that the surge in orders is just because customers are finally out of inventory and they are just now getting around to replenishing their stock.
- Suppliers are realizing they need a little more safety stock than they have been carrying because it’s just disrupted service too much.
- There was some artificial demand generated by the stimulus incentives.
Hence, once all these things get back under control, here comes the double dip.
Why I think the economy is recovering
One of the things I learned this week is that many of the tool shops in my area are really busy right now. In fact, quite a few are booked solid through the end of the year. Tool makers are the people who manufacture the molds for new parts. They’re almost as far back as you can go in the manufacturing supply chain. These guys are making tools for brandy new products. Replenishing inventory is done with existing tooling. It seems from this bit of data that there will be a lot of new products coming on line in early 2011, at least in my geography. I’m no economist, but I think that’s a very very good sign.
The second I noticed is that I’m being bombarded with headhunter calls once again in a way I haven’t felt since 2008. Companies are hiring again (at least in the techie world).
I think that’s the best news I’ve had all week, so let’s hope this little bit of market data is relevant to our whole economy. What are you seeing at your companies?
Also, I’ve been really lame about not doing these more often, so here are some of my favorite reads. I’ve been compiling it off and on for a couple of weeks, so here it is.
Thanks as always to my readers and commentors. You make the blog fun.
How to Get Lucky post from Ramblings of a Woman are spot on.
Barbara Friedberg gives a realistic view of “passive” investments. She’s absolutely right. Most aren’t passive at all.
I really was touched by this post on Loving Being Retired called Accepting Aging. I realized that most of the blogs I’m reading are from younger folks than me…and although I’d love to think I’m an aging hipster, I still have a lot to learn from those older and wiser than myself.
Ramblings of a Woman again struck me with this post. “We are creating our future by deciding where to step.” I really do believe that you have to stop worrying about things you can’t control.
Of course, I was drawn to the Trust Me I’m an Engineer Post at Dinks Finance. I really didn’t realize banks offer different packages based on your profession. Who knew?
Okay, I think it’s super cool that my Entrepreneurial Envy Post inspired Budgeting in the Fun Stuff to write several articles about starting your own business.
Pop Economics has an interesting article about Can Frugality be Learned? My opinion…people are born spenders or savers..but you can learn too.
Guinness is Good for You. Real Beer has a great article on marketing. I spent a year in the UK and they really are marketing genius’s. In fact, I heard that at one point, they even were telling pregnant women to drink Guinness because it was a healthy drink.
Ninja at Punch Debt in the Face admitted that he was a douche-bag for not joining in on the blogging party. Thanks ninja for reminding me of blog etiquette 101 and kick my pants into doing my round up for this week.
Financial Samurai had a great article on the legal mumbo jumbo of becoming an entrepreneur. So, if you don’t remember the difference between a sole proprietorship and an LLC, bookmark this page.
Invest it Wisely has a good post on Google Apps – I personally don’t know what I’d do without google feed reeder.
Everyday Tips has a post on how to allocate a second income. The commentors have different opinions about where it should go, but it’s a good move to keep the tax man from getting any.